🔗 Share this article

Usually, the National Football League's Coach of the Year award follows a straightforward formula. It frequently functions as a form of apology. We regret we misjudged your franchise in our preseason forecasts.

In theory, it's a direct line: the skipper who orchestrated the most dramatic improvement wins the prize. In reality, it fuels an annual argument about expectations and whether we're actually rewarding excellent coaching or merely the greatest upset.

But the current competition is distinctly unique. The group of nominees is exceptionally talented. It has been the season of turnarounds. The NFL has been chaotic, with recent division champions declining and longtime also-rans ascending collectively. Under an ordinary season, a coach leading the his team to the top of the conference would make him the clear front-runner. But in this turbulent and entertaining season, he's up against several other outstanding coaches.

Here is how the hypothetical vote ought to be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, 11-5

Coach of the Year selectors adore quarterbacks. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you solve a franchise QB, you're halfway home.

Ben Johnson not only fixed his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. Within an ideal system, Williams has been afforded the chance to demonstrate his rare talent. From midseason onward, the Chicago offense sit at number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a hot streak – it's sustained excellence. Under his guidance, Williams has become more decisive, far less reckless, and has willingly submitted to the scheme rather than freelancing. It is an attack built solely in Johnson's image: a physical ground attack, a consistent helping of play-action and a innovative passing attack that frees wide receiver targets everywhere. The QB has taken advantage. And when easy reads weren't available, he's been able to create magic from broken plays.

The coach came to Chicago with a defined offensive blueprint. Virtually each gamble – rebuilding the trenches, highlighting the tight ends, turning Williams into a rhythm thrower – has worked. That's rare for a rookie head coach. And it's rarer yet for a leader who walked into the organization with the immense expectations Johnson did. For two straight cycles, he was the hottest name on the coaching market. But when it comes to hiring a leader, there are zero guarantees. Remarkably, Johnson has lived up to the hype – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not just to be a offensive dork but the type of leader that can breathe fresh energy into an organization.

During a ordinary year, he would be the overwhelming favorite. But this isn't a typical year!

Where Johnson's case comes a bit unstuck is on defense. The Chicago defense presently sit 25th in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on takeaways, and turnovers are notoriously fickle. Coaches can stress creating turnovers, but no one can ensure it. He is on the ballot because the offense is real. He's not higher because variance is doing an outsized share of the defense's work. If not for a few bounces of the ball, the Bears would be two victories behind. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the core is in place for long-term winning. But Johnson falls just short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

Coen is in a similar situation to his counterpart. He's a fellow first-time head coach who has masterminded a dramatic turnaround. During the crucial final weeks of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best all-around ball of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defensive unit that now sits at fifth in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more notably, he has mastered the off-field aspects, which was not a guarantee following his early press conference appearances and some of his offseason decisions.

The coach walked into the Jaguars with an uncommonly raw staff. In contrast to other coaches, who packed their staff with the perfect staff cocktail of new ideas and experience, Coen hired first-timers. Starting with the head coach on down to assistants to position coaches, the Jags are filled with first-timers. That type of setup is exciting on paper, but frequently collapses in practice – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everyone is figuring out a their job on the fly. Yet he has pulled the entire group and all elements into sync.

After an initial hot beginning, there was a possibility that the season would go off the track. A midseason collapse caused the Jags stumbling again. That's typically when leaders panic and change too much. Coen did not. Instead, he simplified things. The offense stopped chasing explosive answers and started seeking consistent ones. Coen refocused the offense around key players and the ground attack, and encouraged his QB to use his legs more.

The outcomes are evident. The Jaguars have won seven games in a row and will be the conference's No 3 seed. Coen receives the slightest knock in the rankings because he inherited a talented roster, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Every Strong of the Year case has a pivotal decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback choice.

Moving on from a incumbent, signing a new quarterback and partnering him with an new play-caller could have ended the campaign in October. Instead, it defined it. Through the mid point of the season, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has cooled off since that hot streak, dropping to a lower rank in efficiency per pass attempt over the second half of the schedule, putting him only a single place ahead of peers.

Still